Predictive Methods Essay Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 250 words

Predictive Methods - Essay Example According to Sandford and Hsu, The Delphi Technique can perform functions such as the exposition of underlying information thus leading to various judgments. It can also educate respondents on the vast interrelated aspects about the topic [3]. In such a case, a group of experts will have to have some experience concerning Ukraine in order to determine viable intentions of the people concerning any impending attack. Such determinations rely on the use of experts with intelligence knowledge such as the Red Team. Such cases require fusion by the relevant teams to identify in the identification of elements within the area of responsibility [4].Therefore; the read team becomes an integral part in the prediction of the study question. The Red Team has shown major advances bot in technicality and methods to handle small warring groups [5]. Read teaming is very fundamental in ensuring information for intelligence collection and analysis and thus the Secretary of Defense should ensure the effective establishment of the team in critical areas such as Ukraine [6]. The Red teams have the expertise suitable to analyze situations from various perspectives such as Ukraine [7]. In such a case, they will be in a position to have sufficient information to tell whether the Russia is in an invasion jeopardy. Red Teaming in the past seemed viable in the identification of potential clashes between different groups [7]. Reliable sources say that it is possible that Ukraine is preparing for an attack in the Russia Islands. However, the sources do not have the provision of a clear cut on such claims thus the Delphi method cannot ascertain the outcome of such

Freud and the Unconscious Essay Example for Free

Freud and the Unconscious Essay Few theories hold more intrigue than that of human psychology. Throughout history, many have sought to decode the structure of the mind. Amongst those who were determined to investigate the nature of psychic material, one of the most prominent remains Sigmund Freud (also known as â€Å"the archaeologist of the mind†). Freud had very pronounced views on the innate components of human psychology, within which one idea remained central the ‘unconscious’ mind; he uses this concept to make sense of phenomenons such as that of parapraxes. In his essay, â€Å"The Unconscious†, Freud introduces a unique perception of human thought, action, interaction and experience. He details a state of dualism that exists in our psychical life in stating, â€Å"consciousness includes only a small content, so that the greater part of what we call conscious knowledge must in any case be for very considerable periods of time in a state of latency, that is to say, of being psychically unconscious† (2). He argues that although we are blind to our unconscious mind, it determines a greater part of our behavioural being and participates just as much as psychical activity as our conscious mind. Freud also adds, â€Å"In every instance where repression has succeeded in inhibiting the development of affects, we term those affects ‘unconscious’† (7). He states that the unconscious is where repressed desires are stored, ideas that are suppressed from surfacing into the realm of our awareness e. g. we recognise our emotions we ‘feel’ because they have moved from amongst the elements of the unconscious mind to the conscious mind. The notion of â€Å"what you see is not all there is†, of the uncertainty of appearance or self-knowledge is a message that identifies very well with Freud’s theory of the unconscious. Freud’s arguments entail that a significant reality (and â€Å"most importantly† he would most likely say) exists in that which is intangible. He claimed that the unconscious could not be realized by the individual themselves through introspection, but is potentially made possible during psychoanalysis. In â€Å"The Unconscious†, Freud states, â€Å"[it transforms] into a qualitatively different quota of affect, above all into anxiety; or it is suppressed† (7), alluding that the unconscious mind, or rather a conflict between conscious and the unconscious intentions is the root of neurotic or histrionic behaviour. Thus, not only did he perceive psychoanalysis as a useful tool for uprooting unconscious ideas, but the very understanding of the concept played a central role to the successful treatment of his patients (that is to say, that Freud believed that he could lead his patient to recovery by making aware the unconscious idea that is conflicting with the individual’s consciousness). Freud believed that naturalized phenomenons such as innocent ‘mistakes’ (â€Å"parapraxes†) or the state of dreaming were in fact meaningful and were indications of the active unconscious, an idea which echoes to the notion of conscious and unconscious communications which we discussed in the second week of class that in both forms there were â€Å"logical relations†. This is the essence of Freud’s belief that there is psychical process in every movement or act (whether in a state of wakefulness or asleep/acts that are intended of ‘unintended’), which is to say that order exists in every action including the seemingly ‘disconnected’. With reference to this notion, he famously claimed that parapraxes (slip of the tongue, mishearing, forgetting, memory loss) were significant phenomenons worthy of interpretation, because they were evidence that the unconscious mind exists. In â€Å"Introductory Lectures on Psychoanalysis†, Freud explains his view in which the unconscious plays a significant role in the phenomenon of parapraxes. Though parapraxes are often disregarded as â€Å"small failures of functioning, imperfections in mental activity† (28), he explains, â€Å"They are not chance events but serious mental acts; they have a sense† (44). Before moving on interpret what Freud meant by this, it seems useful to first introduce an idea which Louis Althusser presents in â€Å"Lacan and Freud† (which was also touched upon in class), in which he states: â€Å"the ‘effects’, prolonged in the surviving adult, of the extraordinary adventure that, from birth to the liquidation of the Oedipus complex, transforms a small animal engendered by a man and a woman into a little human child† (22). The transformation that Althusser describes resonates with a sense of ‘humanization’ whereby a feral being is tamed by society and progresses into a ‘human’ existence; it alludes to the ultimate sacrifice that is made by the primitive soul in order to survive amongst civilization [the desire for instinctual satisfaction]. Keeping Althusser’s portrayal in mind, perhaps it could be said, then, that the unconscious manifests impulses whose intentions are deemed ‘too disturbing’ or unfitting with civil behaviour. This conforms to Freud’s argument that a ‘spontaneous’ or unexplainable error is an indication of a compromise between two conflicting aims of the ‘disturbed’ and the ‘disturbing’ consciousness (44). By means of distortion or substitution, the irrational impulse disguises its intentions under an appearance of rationality. He communicates, essentially, that parapraxes should be interpreted less as â€Å"faulty acts†, but instead, should be considered as faulty achievements of our unconscious desires. He indicates this when he states, â€Å"the disturbing purpose only distorts the original one without itself achieving complete expression† (35). Freud theorizes that an inaccessible part of our mind the unconscious does exist and evidence of its reality is apparent, such as in the very happening of everyday pathologies, or â€Å"parapraxes†. He maintains the significance of the unconscious mind as a meaningful, valid psychical force that pursues its own intentions (its presence undeniable in its ability to elicit bodily responses). In the discovery of this, Freud stresses the idea that individuals should place more value in what we so often dismiss as ‘mistakes’, ‘accidental’ or ‘random’ behaviour, because there may be significant meaning to the obscured intentions they convey. On a different note, the underlying notion that there is no such thing as ‘involuntary’ acts or ideas, reinforces more than ever a disparate sociological thought: that we, as individuals, are truly and solely responsible for our own actions.

Goal! The Dream Begins | Reflection

Goal! The Dream Begins | Reflection In this paper, I will describe how the movie entitled Goal! The Dream Begins has inspired me. This film has given me significant insights and realisation about life. In 2005, my son who was ten years old then asked me to bring him to see this movie. His love and passion for football was instilled during his one year education in England. As I am not a football fan, I went to see this movie with the idea that this is just an ordinary soccer film. Little did I know that this movie has warmly touched my heart and inspired me. The movie, Goal! The Dream Begins is a fictional story of a Mexican-American, Santiago Munez, living in Los Angeles. The plot revolves around the life of Santiago, from a footballer to a professional soccer player. As an underprivileged Mexican-American immigrant growing up in the poor sector of Los Angeles, Santiago seemed destined to follow his fathers footsteps, laboring at menial jobs to earn just enough money to support his family. His father wanted him to join the family business and helped their family financially. Though Santiago was incredibly talented in soccer, his father discouraged him from playing soccer, believing that it was only a worthless fantasy. He was skeptical and disapproved his dream. He refused to accept his childs potential. However, Santiagos grandmother (Colon) could see the potential that lied within her grandson and supported him in reaching his ambition. In the movie, one day, a former British professional, Glen Foy, spotted Santiago playing in a pickup game, and promised him a try out for Newcastle United. When Santiago was given the chance of a life time, he had to made a decision whether he should leave his family and his life in Los Angeles and traveled to England to fulfill his dream. Santiagos greatest obstacle was he had no money to buy an air ticket to England. His father has taken his savings to buy a truck for the family business. He was frustrated and he thought there was the end of his dream. But his grandmother sold her jewelry and he left without his fathers knowledge to England to achieve his dream. In life, parents tend to be over realistic and worry about the future prospects of their children. They have many times unintentionally dimmed their childrens dreams. Dreams are wonderful and essential as they give us hope and make us move on in life. According to Gallozi (2010), a dream is ones vision, aspiration or fervent hope for the future. Ozzie Smith, a famous baseball player in America once said all great journeys start with a dream. Of course, we should dream the right dreams and follow our dreams until we make them come true. This plot of the movie reminds me of two occasions in my life. Firstly, after form five, like many students, I wanted to further my study overseas. However, due to financial problem, I have to study locally. My father whose income was barely enough to meet the family expenses had to sacrifice much to sponsor my study in University of Malaya. It was my fathers support that I could gain a varsity education. Second occasion was when I was looking for a jo b. My passion was to teach. My father did not stop me from following that though he wanted me to be an accountant. And because of his approval, I was able to enter into the teaching profession and this passion still lives on after 26 years. This plot also challenged me as a parent. It is important for parents support our children in fulfilling their dreams. We are to help to nurture their dreams. We can provide a conducive environment at home for them to grow into their full potential. When my son was 11 years, I have discovered his talent in music. As a parent, I have tried to support him encouraging him to pursue his dream in playing drum, guitar and piano. Santiago went through trials and tribulations to earn his rightful place in the squad. He soon realised that becoming professional soccer player is not as easy as it looks and that his father may have been right. As things began to get tougher, Santiago realised that he must first believe in himself before anyone else will. His hard work paid off as he eventually was noticed by the coach and made to the reserve team. Like Santiago, he did not give up although he got screwed several times. However, just believing we can do something does not mean there will not be any problems. We need to look for solutions to our problems. Santiago tried to adapt to the rough-and-tumble of the English game such as he had never played in rain or mud before and he also tried to avoid the immoral lifestyles of his teammates. The year 2005 was a tough year for me as I was in the midst of my PhD study. I could personally relate this plot of the movie when I was watching it. As my study was based on a split programme, I had to return to Malaysia for a year. In 2005, I have returned from England to collect data for my PhD. I had to believe in myself and moved on when I faced difficulties in getting responses from questionnaire survey. Interviews with the financial analysts were also a challenge to me. The movie has prepared me mentally for 2006, the year which I had to go to England alone to continue with my PhD. Living alone in England was really a challenge. It took me a while to adjust to my lifestyle there. My main focus in that year was to analyse the data collected and complete my thesis. The PhD journey was not easy. There was this though of quitting but determination and believing in myself had kept me going and completing my PhD and went for my viva within three and a half years. In addition, this movie also has inspired to continue learning my piano which I had stopped pursuing my PhD. I am still taking piano lessons today to improve my skills. The belief in myself has helped me to reach this today. Despite of having asthma, Santiago never loses his grip of becoming a professional soccer play. At first, he was in denial of his case. He even lied during his physical examination. Yet, when his league manager, Mr. Dornhelm, learned about his condition, he immediately advised him to see a physician for a thorough check up. As a result of this courageous revelation, Santiagos morale lifted up. Denial is a negative parcel of life. It is a common mechanism we adopt to cope with our difficulties. According to Jacobson (2010), denial makes us feel safer and secure but it does not change the truth. We love to deny things until we get to realise there is no genuineness inside me. The truth is facing our weaknesses might be a liability but it is not an obstacle. We also see that when Santiagos father died of heart attack while he was in England, he had to make the choice between pursuing self-interest over duty to family that Santiago has to make. Finally, he has chosen to continue with the pursuit of his dream. In 2003, I had to make an important decision in my life. It was a decision which affected also my family and my mother-in-law. Being the only son, my husband is expected to look after his aged mother. The decision as to whether the whole family should go to UK with me or otherwise was tough. Of course, personally I would like to all to go based on selfish reason. However, duty to family is another issue. Whatever the decision there are consequences. In this film, there are two great Samaritans behind Santiagos success. First is his grandmother who gave Santiago the air ticket to his dream. Second is Mr. Glen Foy the retired professional football player who discovered Santiagos talent. Despite of failures and frustrations, he still helps Santiago in any means. In my life, there are also two Samaritans who have helped me in achieving my goals in my life. They are my father and my PhD supervisor. My father motivated me in reaching my goals in life. He had not stopped me from studying even though the Chinese believe that women should not study so much. My supervisors dedication and commitment in his work has helped me much in completing my PhD. Conclusion Even though this film is a fiction it brings out various truths in life. As we relate well to stories, Goal! The Dream Begins is a charming story which will appeal to all especially for those who have left their innermost dreams behind. We need to believe in ourselves and follow our dreams. This movie inspires us not to give up but nurture our dreams until they are fulfilled.

Mothers Smoke Less around Their Children after Counseling :: Essays Papers

Mothers Smoke Less around Their Children after Counseling In Melbourne F. Hovell’s article: â€Å"Effect of Counseling Mothers on their Children’s Exposure to Environmental Tobacco Smoke: Randomized Controlled Trial,† the author persuades the reader effectively through showing evidence about the dangers of second hand smoke. He also introduces the effectiveness that counseling has on mothers who smoke in front of their children. The article presents a study of the effectiveness of counseling for smoking mothers, and shows the decline of children's exposure to smoke in their environment. The article states many valid points, and backs the evidence with statistics to insure that the reader is persuaded by the article’s points. The article begins by introducing the problem of second hand smoke to children, and has a delayed thesis which states his main point about the effectiveness of therapy. The author then explains the methods and who participates. Many statements backed up with evidence co ntinue throughout the article. The article also shares individual stories of mothers who have gone through this type of therapy and how it has helped them. Hovell’s article was believable because it included statistics as well as success stories. His research is also believable because he displays it with credibility and logic, and he appeals to the reader’s values. There are numerous reasons as to why smoking should be banned around small children, specifically in the United States. Hovell addresses these reasons with statistics. The World Health Organization estimated that half of the world’s children are in danger due to second hand tobacco smoke (1). In the United States, 43% or about 15 million children live in homes polluted with tobacco (1). This is a higher percentage compared to other countries across the globe. Many of these children will suffer from asthma, repertory tract infections, otitis media, and sudden infant death syndrome (for fetuses whose mother’s smoke) because of their exposure. The article states that counseling tends to decrease children’s exposure and mother’s smoking while increasing the number of quitters (1). The study done for this article involved recruiting of certain mothers and families who would undergo the counseling process.

Australian Climate Essay -- Weather Environment Australia Essays Paper

Australian Climate Australian Climate Zones When looking at the climate of Australia, we can break up the continent into three basic areas of climate. The tropical region containing the northern peninsulas of Australia, as well as the city of Darwin, is hot and extremely wet. Average maximum temperatures range from 30 - 39 °C with an average annual rainfall of up to 400 cm. The tropical north is covered with rainforests and is regularly hit by tropical monsoons, hence the extreme amount of precipitation. Secondly, the central deserts and grasslands cover over seventy percent of the inland and receive the least amount of rain, from 12 to 100 cm annually. The maximum temperature ranges from 24 °C in the southern deserts to over 36 °C in the northern grasslands. This enormous section of Australia is usually referred to as the â€Å"Outback† and is not densely populated. The third and most heavily-populated climate area is the temperate south and southeast. The big cities in Australia – Melbourne, Sydney, Canbe rra, Brisbane and Perth – are all located in the south, and all in the southeast except for Perth. We will focus on the southeastern coastal area when talking about this temperate climate zone, as the vast majority of Australians live in this area. The climate here is very moist and mild; although not as wet as the tropical north, receiving anywhere from 50 to 320 cm of rain annually, but much wetter in comparison to the Outback. The average maximum temperature in the southeast ranges from 12 to 27 °C, which is more livable compared to the rest of the continent. To understand just how these climate zones function, we must look at the subtropical high that exists in the southern â€Å"horse latitudes† of around 30 °S. The Subtropica... ...on of El Nino, which many think has to do with increased pollution and other human influences on the environment, has created an almost constant state of drought in Australia. For the citizens of Australia, we can only hope that the global community can strive to treat the environment better, as the smallest detrimental actions can have far-reaching consequences when it comes to weather and society. Bibliography Australia Bureau of Meteorology, â€Å"Bureau of Meteorology Home Page,† http://www.bom.gov.au/ Dimantina Touring, â€Å"Outback Australia Climate,† http://www.diamantina-tour.com.au/outback_info/climate.htm Earthsci.org, â€Å"Australia Climate,† http://earthsci.org/weather/austwea/autwea.htm Monash University, â€Å" Australia ’s Climate,† http://www.monash.edu/international/australia/climate/ Weathersavvy.com, â€Å"Deserts,† http://weathersavvy.com/Q-Deserts1.html

Private Development and Corporate Funding to Fight Shoreline Erosion Es

Private Development and Corporate Funding to Fight Shoreline Erosion At its simplest, shoreline erosion is the result of the combination of processes, both natural and manmade, by which shoreline and beaches are damaged or lost. For this discussion, wetlands are also included. There is an ongoing debate over the best way by which to preserve beaches, shorelines, and wetlands. Conservation extremists argue that limiting or restricting land use, and restoring damaged property with tax money represents the most prudent answer to shoreline erosion. Included in this position is the inherent role of government intervention to preserve America’s shoreline. There are many problems with the conservation position, and many advantages to the alternate solution --- private development and corporate funding. The most damaging factor to America’s shoreline is that of poorly planned development in environmentally fragile coastal areas that lead to erosion and various forms of pollution. The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers estimated in 1971 that 40% of the total shoreline of the lower 48 states was experiencing significant erosion. Wind and wave action associated with high tides are the cause of natural erosion. Damming rivers restricts the flow of eroded rock, which is the source of much sand (Rhinehart, 1997). These factors are best addressed by infusions of venture capital applied with sound business principles and sensitivity for environmental concerns. Sound planning by the private sector is essential. The number of people living within 50 miles of the U.S. coastline rose from 61 million to 130 million between 1940 and 1988. More than 50% of Americans currently live within 50 miles of the shoreline, but the figure is pr... ...ions Must Be Repealed.† www.mcaffre_se@leg.wa.gov (2001). Spencer, H. (2000). â€Å"Seawalls Bring on Raging Debate in Washington State.† www.beachbrowser.com â€Å"Development-Protecting Seawalls Debated.† www.hosey-chehalis river council index.html Rhinehart, J. and J. Pompe (1997). â€Å"Entrepreneurship and Coastal Resource Management.† The Independent Review, vol. 1, No. 4. pp.543-559. Skousen, Mark (1999). â€Å"The Battle for Diamond Head: A Case for Market Failure?† The Freeman. Works Cited â€Å"Coping With Shoreline Erosion in the Caribbean.† http://www.unesco.org/csi/act/cosalc/shore-ero.htm. Online. Available. 23 March 2002. Nepf, Heidi. â€Å"Longshore Drift.† Microsoft Encarta Encyclopedia 2000. â€Å"Streambank and Shoreline Erosion Management Measure.† http://www.epa.gov/OWOW/NPS/MMGI/Chapter 6/ch6-4.html. Online. Available. 23 March 2002.

Community Health Nursing Essay

Optional: As the school nurse role evolves, there are increasingly more health concerns for the school nurse. Does the locale make a difference in the problems, or are health problems in children and adolescents universal? In some inner-city areas, violence is a prevalent issue. What do you think are the biggest problems in your areas? The role of the school nurse has definitely evolved since I was in school. I remember the school nurse in elementary school was very kind in her starched white uniform and when you went to the â€Å"clinic† you were told to lay down on a cot and put a cool washcloth on your forehead. According to Nies & McEwan, many of today’s health challenges are different from those of the past and include behaviors and risks linked to the leading causes of death such as heart disease, injuries, and cancer (p. 580). There is an increase among young people to participate in unhealthy behavior such as smoking, drinking, drugs, and poor nutrition, decrease physical activity, increase sexual behavior, violence, suicide, that will put them at a risk for health problems (Nies & McEwan, 2015) In 2013, the population of Chesapeake, Virginia is 230,571 (United Stated Census Bureau) Chesapeake Public School Nurses in 2011-2012 treated 681,526 students in their clinic; treated 117,058 ill stude nts; treated 98,041 students that needed first aid and injured themselves; performed 62, 089 nursing procedures; counseled 175, 158 students and parents; and administered 128, 869 medications (Chesapeake Public Schools, 2012). WOW, that is a lot of  patients! This week’s lessons discusses the evolving role of the school nurse not only attending the students’ needs but involvement in â€Å"policy-making activities at both the local and state levels (CCN, 2015) The question proposed in this week’s lesson regarding some of the roles for the community health nurses is also applicable to the school nurse. The school nurse is the clinician, case manager, advocate, educator, researcher, administrator, change agent, case finder, coordinator and consultant in order to meet the complex needs of students. According to Nies & McEwen, many of today’s health challenges are different from those of the past and include behaviors and risks linked to the leading causes of death such as heart disease, injuries, and cancer. In the suburb that I live in there has been no violence reported by students in the school system that my daughter is a fifth grade teacher. I think the locale of the school system can increase potential risk for violence. In the school system that my daughter is a teacher she says that they deal more with behavior problems and lack of parental involvement in the child’s progress. There are more students that are being treated with mental illness at such an early age. She had one child that was diagnoses as a bipolar. There have been several cases of child abuse that she has had to report. She feels a challenge to education system is holding children more accountable to meet requirements verses appeasing parents. Many parents are the first to say, no it’s not my child when in fact their child is the leader of the disruptive group. Since President Bush initiated â€Å"no child left behind† program, I think this has caused challenges for the teacher to develop more creative styles of teaching without the support of administration and parents. I did not realize that the school nurse role included seven elements that they need to focus on that was listed in this week’s discussion. I thought their primary role was clinical services that included first aid and screening. After reviewing the elements, I can see this as an interdisciplinary team approach that should include teachers, lunch room staff, parents and students to ensure that students receive a top notch school health program that will provide them the tools to have a healthy lifestyle. References: United States Census Bureau. Retrieved from: http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/51/51550.html Chesapeake Public Schools, (July, 2012). School Health Advisory Board. Retrieved from: http://www.cpschools.com/shab_2012.pdf Nies, M. A., & McEwen, M. (2015). Community/Public health nursing: Promoting the health of populations (6th ed.). St. Louis, MO: Saunders/Elsevier. Chamberlain College of Nursing. (2015). NR443 Week 4: Community Health Roles, Settings, and Interventions.[online lesson]. Downers Grove, IL: DeVry Education Group Community school nurses have a very difficult job. School age children have such a variety of health concerns that can be congenital, environmental, behavioral, and socioeconomic. (Nies & McEwen, 2015) Where does a CHN start? Promoting wellness, health education, and identifying deficiencies within the schools, and creating programs to improve services is a great beginning. I do believe that most problems that we see in children and adolescents are universal. Inactivity, obesity, poor nutrition, and substance abuse are a few examples, but these problems can escalate even more when as a child’s socioeconomic condition worsens. When researching statistics I was shocked to find out that that 8.3% of teenagers in Broward County had engaged in sex before the age of 13, that is higher than the national average of 6.2%. (floridahealth.gov) To make things worse, Broward County also has the second highest rate of Infectious Syphilis in the state. HIV and Chlamydia are also on the rise compared to the rest of the United States. Sexually transmitted diseases in this demographic are increasing but teen pregnancy is on the decline. This I believe is a real problem, sex education must start in our homes with parents and transcend into our schools. According to our reading, sex education in our schools remains controversial. However, it seems like a necessity for our youth to have a nonjudgemental forum in which they can receive accurate information Wow, I was amazed at the statisctis for STD’s in Broward County and wanted to see how Chesapeake Virginia rated. Per 100,000 there was 588.3 per people diagnosed with Chlamydia and that is higher than the state of Virginina and nationally. Gonorrhea was 108.9 compared to national level of 107.5.